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Questions about the Indiana and North Carolina primaries

1. What was the overall Obama/Clinton percentage breakdown in the North Carolina / Indiana primaries?

2. How many delegates to the national convention are at stake in the Republican and in the Democratic parties? How are the delegates chosen in both states?

Barack Obama was able to win the closed primary in North Carolina on May 6th with 56, 2% over Hillary Clinton. Obama gained 32 delegates and 6 superdelegates whereas Clinton got 24 delegates and 2 superdelegates. For the Republican party John McCain(?) won with 73, 5% over Huckabee (12, 1%) and Paul (7, 8%). In the open primary in Indiana, which also took place on May 6th, Clinton was able to claim a 50, 7% - 49, 3% win over Obama. Clinton gained 36 delegates and 5 superdelegates while Obama collected 32 delegates and 4 superdelegates. McCain(?) won with 77, 6% for the Republicans against Huckabee (10%) and Paul (7, 7%).

In total, Obama gained 1859 delegates (91, 8%) of the 2025 needed to secure the nomination at the national convention. Clinton, on the other hand, collected 1689 delegates (83, 4%) of the 2025 needed. For the first time since the beginning of the campaign, Obama has taken the lead among the superdelegates. He now has 281 superdelegates including 23 since the primaries in Indiana and North Carolina and 3 who switched their support from Clinton to Obama.

In the upcoming primaries in West Virginia (May 13th), Kentucky and Oregon (May 20th), South Dakota and Montana (June 3rd) and Puerto Rico (June 7th) the last 216 delegates will be distributed.

3. In what areas (rural vs urban) did Obama do better than Clinton, and in what areas did Clinton do better than Obama? Hillary Clinton won the Indiana primary, where the majority of people can be described as white workers from the middle class, with an advantage of 1,4 percent. She got 50,7% and 37 delegates whereas Barack Obama got 49,3 percent and 35 delegates. 6.313.520 people live in Indiana. 88,3 percent, the majority, are White whereas 8,9 percent are Black and 1,3 percent Asians. The state Indiana had an unemployment rate of 4,8 percent in November 2006 and an median household income of $ 43.217. If you compare statistics about the outcome of former presidential elections it can be statet that the majority of voters chosed a Republican candidate. Bush got 60 percent in 2004 whereas Kerry got only 39,3 percent. Obama did better in North Carolina. He won 56,2 percent and 64 of the 115 delegates. Hillary Clinton got only 41,5 percent of the votes. One fifth of the popularity of North Carolina is coloured and 91 percent of them voted for Barack Obama wheras only 36 percent of the white citizens voted for the senator of Illinois. 74 percent of the popularity of North Carolina are White and 1,9 percent are Asians. An unemployment rate of 4,9 percent is nearly similar to the one of Indiana and the median household income is about $ 40.863 per year.

The importance of rural areas in the USA seem to be realized by both democratic candidates. The support of the people in the rural areas of the USA is one of the issues of Barack Obama. He criticizes that American farmer families are left behind and that they are shut out by politics. The senator states that : “The dreams of rural Americans are familiar to all Americans – to make good living, to raise a healthy and secure family, and to leave our children a future of opportunity.” His agenda, he promises, will be fighting for those farmer families in the rural parts of the USA to give them the access to opportunities, Obama himself was always fighting for, to achieve the American Dream.

Obama shares this visions with Hillary Clinton. She also wants to rebuild rural areas of the USA but there are more details, how she wants to achieve it, to find on her website than on the website of Barack Obama. Clinton has the intention to create new jobs for the following generation in the rural areas with the production of biofuels or wind power. A good education is the key to a booming economy and this should be ensured through a recruitment of teachers for the rural areas of the country. The goal to be able to live the American Dream should be achieved with the creation of : “[…] a Strategic Energy Fund that would inject $50 billion into research, development and deployment of renewable energy, energy efficiency, ethanol, and other homegrown biofuels.”

Compare: http://uswahl2008.de http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/indiana.html http://www.faz.net http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/north.carolina.html http://www.barackobama.com/issues/rural/ http://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/rural/

(Hannah Stadie)

4. What is the breakdown in terms of ethnicity? (You’ll have to figure out where the majority of African Americans live in these states)

5. What is the breakdown in terms of age?

6. What is the breakdown in terms of income? In Indiana, there were 72 pledged delegates at stake at a so-called “open-“primary, where registered voters are able to vote at either Party’s election, weather Republican or Demoratic. The 6.3 (2006) million residents of Indiana are demographically 86 percent white, 8 percent black and 4 percent Hispanic, which makes it less ethnically diverse than the nationwide average. In the Primaries so far, Clinton was winning decisively among white Democratic voters, Obama won even more overwhelmingly among black voters, which – in Indiana - are concentrated in the urban parts of the state, first of all the cities of Gary and East Chicago. According to Cencus Bureau estimates, the average household income in Indiana was about $44,000 in 2005, which puts it in the national mid-range. Obama did well among upper-income voters ($75,000 +) as well as low-income voters (less than $15,000) in the southern and eastern parts of the state, while Clinton appealed mostly to mid-income, blue-collar and elderly voters. Also, Indiana is said to be a very conservative region, that is firmly Republican in presidential election, since the electorate is conservative, mostly white and relatively poor. That’s why Indiana – demographically like Ohio an Pennsylvania – was thought to be solid ground for Clinton beforehand, but it came down to a realy close call between the two candidades. In North Carolina, Obama won overwhelmingly by 14 percent. Again, he could rely on the African-American vote (nearly a quarter of the state’s population in black, 34 percent of Democratic voters were black and of those, 9 out of 10 voted for him). As in other states, he did well among young and well-educated voters that tend to live in the state’s urban and suburban areas (especially in the cities of Charlotte and Raleigh), in NC he even did better with female voters than Clinton. Clinton again did better among white voters, especially those who said they were less educated and had a lower income, although statistics (http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#NCDEM) show that voters of all income-groups favoured Obama (the lead is at least 5 percent, in the group of “under $15,000 Obama even leads with 35 percent, 66 to 31 percent). In NC, incomes are higher in urban than in rural areas and white people do have a higher income than black people (Whites: around $26,000 in urban and $20,000 in rural areas, African-Americans: around $15,000 in urban and $11,000 in rural areas average)

Sources:

Indiana: http://news.yahoo.com/s/cq/20080506/pl_cq_politics/politics2717052 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana#Demographics http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#INDEM North Carolina: http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/campaign-2008/2008/05/07/indiana-and-north-carolina-reinforce-demographic-patterns-for-clinton-and-obama.html?PageNr=2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Carolina#Demographics http://www.ncruralcenter.org/databank/trendpage_Income.asp

7. What do these results mean in terms of the number of delegates each candidate has won for the Democratic National Convention?

A candidate has to win a simple majority of 2,025 delegate’s votes out of a total of 4049 to win the 2008 nomination. So far at the present moment Sen. Obama is leading with 1,881 delegates; 282 of them are superdelegates. But Mrs.Clinton dogs his footsteps with 1,713 delegates and 273 superdelegates. As to the results especially in Indiana and North Carolina, Obama pulled out a 14-point win in North Carolina on the 6th of May, and Clinton barely took Indiana, winning by 2 points. Only 217 pledged delegates are up for grabs in the remaining six contests: West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota.

Tuesday, the 6 th of May was Clinton's last major opportunity to significantly cut into Obama's lead in the delegate count. The 187 delegates at stake were awarded proportionally, meaning Obama padded his lead while Clinton slipped further behind.

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/02/delegate.explainer/ http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/07/democrats.race/index.html

(Yuliya Luk’yanenko)

8. What is a closed vs open primary? Are Indiana and North Carolina open or closed primaries? How could this affect the results as well as their significance for predicting what will happen at the DNC or in the general election in November? "Open primaries (or pick-a-party) are those in which voters of any affiliation may vote for the slate of any party. Closed primaries are those in which only the voters affiliated with a party may vote in its primary." North Carolina: "If registered with with a party, you must vote in that party´s primary. If unaffiliated, you may choose a party on the day of the primary election." Indiana: Open primary Source: FairVote(?) / Voting and Democracy Research Center (http://www.fairvote.org/?page=1801) The results of open primaries are harder to predict so you cannot really foresee what is going to happen at the DNC or in the general election in November. The results are harder to predict because the proportion of people who can hardly be rated is bigger. (Bettina Klewer)

In a closed primary voters can only vote for candidates in the party they are registered in. In an open primary voters can vote for either party, regardless of which party they are registered in. Indiana is such a open primary state but the voters may be asked to declare in whose primary they intend to vote. North Carolina is a semi-open primary state. This means that registered voters may only vote in their own party’s primary. Independents may vote in either primary. In an open primary, like Indiana, “raiding” may occur. This means that voters of one party plan a strategic move to force a weaker candidate of the other party (“crossing over”) in order to elect the opposition’ candidate who is easier to challenge in the general election. A closed or semi-open primary (like North Carolina) prevents members of other parties from “crossing over” to influence the nomination of an opposing party’s candidate. In the current election then, in an open primary, voters usually registered for the Republican Party, might vote for Clinton since she is assumed to be the weaker candidat. This might lead to the situation that Clinton receives a majority of the available pledged delegates and superdelegates in the DNC and becomes the democratic candidate for the general election – the weaker candidat against McCain(?).

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#IN http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#NC http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primary_election (Anke Herbers)

9. How many of the people participating in the Indiana primary voted across party lines? (What percentage of the people who voted in the Democratic primary were Republicans? Why would Republicans want to do this?)

10. What is the significance of the North Carolina and Indiana primaries, considering the proportional distribution of delegates to the Democratic National Convention in August?

11. Which of these candidates has a better chance against McCain(?)?

12. What has the effect of the Jeremiah Wright controversy been on the primaries? Did it effect Democratic voters’ decisions as to who to support in the primary (look at exit polls for this info)

13. What is the gas tax the candidates keep referring to? What is the proposal two of the three candidates have come up with regarding the gas tax? What are the pros and cons of the proposal?

14. Which states have not yet held a primary or a caucus? How are the two Democratic candidates doing there? Answer: The following weeks primaries will be held in Kentucky, Oregon and Puerto Rico. On May 20, Kentucky Democratic voters will have to choose between Obama and Clinton. Kentucky’s governor Steve Beshear, a Democratic superdelegate, hasn't endorsed either candidate, although he was once cited as a Clinton "admirer." Obama is supported by the two Democratic Representatives John Yarmuth and Ben Chandler. It is estimated that high poverty rates, to be found in Kentucky, might highlight economic issues in the campaign. Latest polls show that Kentucky voters will likely choose for Clinton with 58% and for Obama with 31%, 11% declare not be sure yet. Oregon will also vote on May, 20th in their unique mail-in primary. Voters had two weeks time to mail back their vote. The two Democratic candidates mentioned very similar plans for Oregon. Clinton wants to bring "green jobs" to the region and she supports Oregon's law allowing terminally ill patients to end their lives. Also Obama’s plans go into a “green“ direction. He wants to realise federal payments to counties dependent on the timber industry and to restore depleted salmon areas along the Pacific coast. Up to now Democrats have been doing well in Oregon and both candidates can count on Representatives who support them. On June, 01st primaries will be held in Puerto Rico. So far Clinton has done well among voters with Latino background. Puerto Rico voters are particularly interested in the candidates’ point of views whether the island should be granted statehood or remain a commonwealth. Both Clinton and Obama endorse allowing Puerto Ricans to choose for themselves between statehood and remaining a commonwealth. It is expected that the voter turnout will be very high. Source: http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/kentucky.html